Summary of Art Of Manliness Podcast Episode: Unveiling the Fourth Turning: Historys Crisis Period Unraveled
Podcast: Art Of Manliness
8 min. read
— Description —
Discover the fascinating pattern of history repeating itself in a 80-100 year cycle, divided into four quarters or turnings Explore how each Fourth Turning brings a crisis period, often marked by war, and learn how events like World War I and 9/11 have sparked these pivotal moments Uncover the role of catalyst events like Black Thursday and the Great Financial Crisis, and understand the significance of total war in every Fourth Turning
Gain insights into the search for a new definition of community and the predicted climax event for this cycle in 2030 Explore the human nature of political leaders reaching for parallels from previous cycles as we navigate through the crisis era.
Unveiling the Fourth Turning: Historys Crisis Period Unraveled
Table of contents
Key Takeaways
Intro
An Overview Of The Fourth Turning Theory
The Current Fourth Turning
Reviewing The Stages With Neil Howe
Possible Consolidation Events For The Current Cycle
What Happens When We Transition From Fourth to First Turning?
How Our Culture May Change
How This Cycle Could Be Different
Advice For Navigating The Fourth Turning
Key Takeaways
- History repeats itself in a certain pattern; there is this 80-100 year cycle that repeats itself
- This cycle can be divided into four quarters, or “turnings”, where each one is 20-25 years long and contains parallels from previous cycles
- The Fourth Turning is a crisis period where the country faces some big threat, often a war
- Just as World War I was the precursor event that sparked the previous Fourth Turning, Neil Howe believes that 9/11 was the event that sparked the current Fourth Turning
- Black Thursday was the catalyst event for the previous Fourth Turning, and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was the catalyst to spark this one
- Every Fourth Turning in Anglo-American history going back 600-700 years has featured at least one episode of total war, and every total war has occurred in a Fourth Turning
- People will always search for a new definition of community during the regeneracy period, but it is never obvious which form that definition will take
- Neil predicts the climax event for this cycle will be around 2030
- We do not think about the future when times are great; we think about the future during times of crisis
- As we move further into the crisis era, political leaders will reach toward the parallels from the previous cycles, as it is human nature to do so
Intro
- Neil Howe (@HoweGeneration) is an American author, economist, and consultant. He co-authored the 1997 best-selling book The Fourth Turning with William Strauss. His new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, revisits the key ideas discussed in his previous book, and analyzes them in the context of current events.
- In this conversation, Neil Howe discusses his “Fourth Turning” theory, common traits of each stage, what to watch for, what we can expect, and more
- Check out these Podcast Notes on Nouriel Roubini’s 10 Megathreats to watch for
- Host: Brett McKay (@artofmanliness)
An Overview Of The Fourth Turning Theory
- Neil Howe believes we are currently living through a Fourth Turning
- History repeats itself in a certain pattern; there is this 80-100 year cycle that repeats itself
- This cycle can be divided into four quarters, or “turnings”, where each one is 20-25 years long
- The Fourth Turning is a crisis period where the country faces some big threat, often a war
- The Fourth Turning can be thought of as a period of winter
- Our last Fourth Turning started with the great depression and ended with World War II
- The cycle starts over again after the Fourth Turning, and the First Turning begins
- The First Turning can be thought of as springtime: Institutions are strong and individualism is weak, it is conformist, and people are able to work together and get big things done
- Our last First Turning was the period after World War II until the late 1960s
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The Second Turning is a time of spiritual awakening and can be thought of as summertime in history
- People grow tired of conforming, and there is a growing focus on individualism
- Our last Second Turning was from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s
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The Third Turning is like fall; it is a period of unraveling where the individualism of the Second Turning catches up with society, institutional trust bottoms out, societal systems become dysfunctional, people are divided and they cannot get things done
- Our last Third Turning was from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s
- Then the crisis happens again, and we are back to the Fourth Turning
The Current Fourth Turning
- “Crisis” is not an event, but an era
- There can be many crises within a Fourth Turning era
- Just as World War I was the precursor event that sparked the previous Fourth Turning, Neil Howe believes that 9/11 was the event that sparked the current Fourth Turning
- Black Thursday was the catalyst event for the previous Fourth Turning, and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was the catalyst to spark this one
- For example, the catalyst event for the American Revolution was the Boston Tea Party, and the election of Abraham Lincoln was the catalyst for the American Civil War cycle
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A period of regeneracy happens when the public realizes how bad things really are, and they take steps to course-correct society’s direction
- The public tends to rally around a new agenda that excites people to where we might be headed
- For example, FDR and the New Deal in the 1930s
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Neil says the regeneracy event of our current period was the 2016 presidential election of Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton
- This election changed America’s participation in politics
- America is now galvanized around political tribes
- Recently, we have seen civil unrest and some warnings of civil war
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A leaderless period leads to creative destruction in the public sector, often driven by organized conflict, which leads to the final stages of the Fourth Turning
- “Organized conflict” is a way of referring to war
- The final stages of the Fourth Turning involve consolidations, a climax, and ultimately a resolution
- Every Fourth Turning in Anglo-American history going back 600-700 years has featured at least one episode of total war, and every total war has occurred in a Fourth Turning
Reviewing The Stages With Neil Howe
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The precursor event happens in the Third Turning and galvanizes a society
- Examples: World War I and 9/11
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After the precursor event, the catalyst kickstarts the actual crisis era
- Examples: Black Thursday stock market crash and the 2008 GFC
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The regeneracy follows, which consists of society trying to figure out the next steps to take
- There are many “unknowns” during this period, and it can be very divisive
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The conflict that characterizes the climax can be internal or external
- The nature of this conflict cannot be determined in advance
- For example, it was not obvious that America wouldn’t go to civil war before it decided to fight the Nazis in the 1930s
- People will always search for a new definition of community during the regeneracy period, but it is never obvious which form that definition will take
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Examples of regeneracy in the current cycle: the 2016, 2018, and 2020 US elections
- In America, there has been a recent surge of interest in politics
- Most cycles have many degeneracies
- We enter the period of consolidation when enough people realize the fate of the country is at stake, and when societal mobilization is required
- The climax event of the previous cycle was the simultaneous invasion of Europe and the South Pacific in June 1944
- The climax is when you can start to see the end of the cycle
Possible Consolidation Events For The Current Cycle
- Examples of possible consolidation events for the current cycle: domestic impeachments, states refusing to go along with federal rulings, a financial crash, a war with another great power
- Currently, all of the long-term indicators suggest we are headed into a recession
- In terms of living standards, Neil Howe believes we are in a “hunkered down” period of hope
- Younger generations are the most negative about democracy, according to Neil Howe
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Neil predicts the climax event for this cycle will be around 2030
- Keep in mind, he is predicting tides, not necessarily when waves will break
- After the climax comes the resolution
- He predicts the resolution of the current cycle to happen in the early to mid-2030s
What Happens When We Transition From Fourth to First Turning?
- Income and wealth become more equal at the end of the Fourth Turning and at the start of the First Turnings
- Defiance shifts toward authority
- There is a movement away from deferring long-term decisions and towards making long-term decisions
- Resources are moved from the present toward the future
- We tend to construct amazing long-term institutions when our country is most at peril
- We do not think about the future when times are great; we think about the future during times of crisis
How Our Culture May Change
- Neil Howe believes “what women want is usually followed by a lag of what men become”
- Women are struggling to find men that they can depend on
How This Cycle Could Be Different
- The parallels from cycle to cycle arise naturally
- As we move toward the crisis, current political leaders will reach toward the parallels from the previous cycles, as it is human nature to do so
- Fourth Turnings do not always have great outcomes
- Neil does not subscribe to “determinant history”; it is important what we do!
- Defeated nations in the previous cycle still experienced awakenings, they just experienced them later on than the victorious nations did