Neil Howe (@HoweGeneration) is an American author, economist, and consultant. He co-authored the 1997 best-selling book The Fourth Turning with William Strauss. His new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here, revisits the key ideas discussed in his previous book, and analyzes them in the context of current events. 
In this conversation, Neil Howe discusses his “Fourth Turning” theory, common traits of each stage, what to watch for, what we can expect, and more 
Check out these Podcast Notes on Nouriel Roubini’s 10 Megathreats to watch for  
Host: Brett McKay (@artofmanliness) 
Neil Howe believes we are currently living through a Fourth Turning
History repeats itself in a certain pattern; there is this 80-100 year cycle that repeats itself 
This cycle can be divided into four quarters, or “turnings”, where each one is 20-25 years long 
The Fourth Turning is a crisis period where the country faces some big threat, often a war 
The Fourth Turning can be thought of as a period of winter 
Our last Fourth Turning started with the great depression and ended with World War II 
The cycle starts over again after the Fourth Turning, and the First Turning begins
The First Turning can be thought of as springtime: Institutions are strong and individualism is weak, it is conformist, and people are able to work together and get big things done 
Our last First Turning was the period after World War II until the late 1960s 
The Second Turning is a time of spiritual awakening and can be thought of as summertime in history
  • People grow tired of conforming, and there is a growing focus on individualism 
  • Our last Second Turning was from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s    
The Third Turning is like fall; it is a period of unraveling where the individualism of the Second Turning catches up with society, institutional trust bottoms out, societal systems become dysfunctional, people are divided and they cannot get things done
  • Our last Third Turning was from the mid-1980s to the mid-2000s
Then the crisis happens again, and we are back to the Fourth Turning
“Crisis” is not an event, but an era 
There can be many crises within a Fourth Turning era 
Just as World War I was the precursor event that sparked the previous Fourth Turning, Neil Howe believes that 9/11 was the event that sparked the current Fourth Turning 
Black Thursday was the catalyst event for the previous Fourth Turning, and the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 was the catalyst to spark this one 
For example, the catalyst event for the American Revolution was the Boston Tea Party, and the election of Abraham Lincoln was the catalyst for the American Civil War cycle 
A period of regeneracy happens when the public realizes how bad things really are, and they take steps to course-correct society’s direction
  • The public tends to rally around a new agenda that excites people to where we might be headed 
  • For example, FDR and the New Deal in the 1930s 
Neil says the regeneracy event of our current period was the 2016 presidential election of Donald Trump vs. Hilary Clinton
  • This election changed America’s participation in politics 
  • America is now galvanized around political tribes 
  • Recently, we have seen civil unrest and some warnings of civil war 
A leaderless period leads to creative destruction in the public sector, often driven by organized conflict, which leads to the final stages of the Fourth Turning 
  • “Organized conflict” is a way of referring to war 
The final stages of the Fourth Turning involve consolidations, a climax, and ultimately a resolution 
Every Fourth Turning in Anglo-American history going back 600-700 years has featured at least one episode of total war, and every total war has occurred in a Fourth Turning
The precursor event happens in the Third Turning and galvanizes a society
  • Examples: World War I and 9/11
After the precursor event, the catalyst kickstarts the actual crisis era
  • Examples: Black Thursday stock market crash and the 2008 GFC
The regeneracy follows, which consists of society trying to figure out the next steps to take
  • There are many “unknowns” during this period, and it can be very divisive 
The conflict that characterizes the climax can be internal or external 
  • The nature of this conflict cannot be determined in advance 
  • For example, it was not obvious that America wouldn’t go to civil war before it decided to fight the Nazis in the 1930s 
People will always search for a new definition of community during the regeneracy period, but it is never obvious which form that definition will take 
Examples of regeneracy in the current cycle: the 2016, 2018, and 2020 US elections
  • In America, there has been a recent surge of interest in politics
Most cycles have many degeneracies 
We enter the period of consolidation when enough people realize the fate of the country is at stake, and when societal mobilization is required 
The climax event of the previous cycle was the simultaneous invasion of Europe and the South Pacific in June 1944
The climax is when you can start to see the end of the cycle 
Examples of possible consolidation events for the current cycle: domestic  impeachments, states refusing to go along with federal rulings, a financial crash, a war with another great power 
Currently, all of the long-term indicators suggest we are headed into a recession 
In terms of living standards, Neil Howe believes we are in a “hunkered down” period of hope 
Younger generations are the most negative about democracy, according to Neil Howe 
Neil predicts the climax event for this cycle will be around 2030 
  • Keep in mind, he is predicting tides, not necessarily when waves will break 
After the climax comes the resolution
He predicts the resolution of the current cycle to happen in the early to mid-2030s
Income and wealth become more equal at the end of the Fourth Turning and at the start of the First Turnings 
Defiance shifts toward authority 
There is a movement away from deferring long-term decisions and towards making long-term decisions 
Resources are moved from the present toward the future 
We tend to construct amazing long-term institutions when our country is most at peril 
We do not think about the future when times are great; we think about the future during times of crisis 
Neil Howe believes “what women want is usually followed by a lag of what men become”
Women are struggling to find men that they can depend on 
The parallels from cycle to cycle arise naturally 
As we move toward the crisis, current political leaders will reach toward the parallels from the previous cycles, as it is human nature to do so 
Fourth Turnings do not always have great outcomes 
Neil does not subscribe to “determinant history”; it is important what we do!
Defeated nations in the previous cycle still experienced awakenings, they just experienced them later on than the victorious nations did 
Government safety nets become less generous as public institutions have to fight harder and harder for their own survival 
It is important to solidify your network of friends and family as public institutions crumble around you 
Know who you can count on 
Fortify your relationships within your community